Your skirt knows more about the economy than you do.

The relationship between fashion and the economy has long fascinated economists, historians, and cultural commentators. One of the most interesting examples of this connection is the hemline index, a theory suggesting that skirt lengths rise and fall in relation to economic trends. In 1926, economist George Taylor stated that he could predict the economy based on women’s hemlines, arguing that when hemlines rise, so does the economy, whereas when hemlines become lower, we should expect a period of recession. However, this was only a theory until 2010 when economists carried out quantitative data analysis on monthly hemline data from 1921 to 2009, and they found hemlines do indeed shift following economic changes by about 3-4 years. 

Dior 'New Look'

History of the Hemline Index

During the economic boom of the 1920s, women's fashion underwent a dramatic change. The flapper style became popular, with dresses rising to just below the knee, a major change from the long skirts of previous decades. Rapid economic growth, rising consumer spending, and greater social freedom for women coincided with these shorter hemlines. The decade's optimism and modernity were reflected in fashion's embrace of movement, youth, and liberation. However, following the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the onset of the Great Depression, fashion became noticeably more restrained. Hemlines lengthened during the 1930s, often returning to mid-calf lengths. Economic hardship reduced spending on clothing, and styles became more practical and conservative. Designers favoured elegant, longer silhouettes that reflected the period’s more serious mood. 

After the Second World War, many Western economies experienced strong growth during the 1950s with rising incomes, increased consumer spending, and changing social attitudes. Yet Dior’s ‘new look’ stayed relevant until the mid 50s, though style was becoming more experimental and expressive of individuality. Eventually, the economic conditions helped make way for one of the most famous examples of the hemline index: the miniskirt. Popularised in the 1960s, the miniskirt became a symbol of youth culture, optimism, and economic confidence. The booming economy, due to increased fiscal prosperity and the development of new technology within the space race, supported bold fashion experimentation and allowed Mary Quant to introduce the miniskirt to young women across the globe.

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Mary Quant

The oil embargos, inflation, and economic instability of the 1970s coincided with a move toward longer, flowier skirts and maxi dresses, popularised by fashion brands such as Laura Ashley. Fashion became more varied, but longer hemlines notably gained popularity. The uncertainty of the decade due to the Vietnam War and its socio-economic consequences appeared to align with the predictions of the hemline index, although other influences, including changing tastes and cultural movements, also played important roles.

Economic growth during the 1980s brought power dressing, shorter skirts, and more expressive fashion, particularly in business wear with the ‘power suit’. However, the relationship between hemlines and economic conditions became less obvious. Global fashion trends, celebrity culture, and rapidly changing styles meant that skirt lengths no longer moved uniformly. This is evident during the recession of the early 1990s, where both short and long styles remained fashionable.

How is the Hemline Index relevant today?

The global financial crisis of 2008 did create a renewed interest in the hemline index, with some commentators noting a return to more modest and longer silhouettes during the recession. However, contemporary fashion has become increasingly diverse, with mini, midi, and maxi skirts often existing simultaneously. Fast fashion, social media, and globalised trends have weakened the direct relationship between economic conditions and skirt lengths, and now fashion trends have much shorter lifespans than economic cycles, so they are less likely to coincide. Although the hemline index may not be proven as a reliable predictor of economic change, the relationship between economic anxiety and fashion remains undeniable. Periods of uncertainty continue to shape consumer behaviour, influencing not only what people buy but also how they choose to dress, ensuring that fashion still reflects the mood of the times, even if we can’t use our hemlines to predict the rise and fall of the economy.